UFC 314
- By: Max Deener
Nikita Krylov vs Dominick Reyes – Reyes had lost 4 in a row
since he defeated Jon Jones in a controversial decision. That was prior to his current
two fight win streak. However, those two fighters are both close to retiring. Krylov
should be plenty fresh since his last fight was in 2023. Krylov was slated as a
heavyweight last November, but then his opponent backed out. Krylov is back down to
the 205 lb light heavyweight division for this matchup. Krylov has won via KO in 12 of
his 30 wins. Reyes’ last three losses, while against top competition (including 2
champions), were by knockout.
My pick: Krylov (-175) and if you want longer odds (Krylov via KO
+275)
Bryce Mitchell vs Jean Silva: This will be a great matchup of
contrasting styles. Silva, out of the undefeated “Fighting Nerds” gym, is a Muay Thai
striker who looks for the highlight reel knockout. Mitchell will try to take this fight to the
ground with his black belt in Jui Jitsu. Mitchell was lucky to escape his last bout against
unranked Kron Gracie, but he was able to get a ground and pound knockout. Many in
the MMA world think Mitchell’s chin is “gone” since Josh Emmett knocked him
unconscious and into seizures at UFC 296 (right when my Dad picked an awful time to
go to the bathroom).
My picks: Silva (-198), and over 2.5 rounds (+114), or parlay them for
+300
Yair Rodriguez vs Patricio “Pitbull” Freire
This may be the most unpredictable fight of the night. Pitbull Freire comes over from
the recently bankrupted Bellator FC to face the former interim featherweight champion,
Rodriguez. Despite being 37 years old, this will be the UFC debut for Freire. Rodriguez
is technically a boxer, but anyone who saw his fights with Chang Sung Juing, knows
that his elbows are unpredictable and very dangerous.
My pick: Rodriguez (-170), longer odds play would be Rodriguez via
KO (+300). Tread lightly here
Michael Chandler vs Paddy Pimblett : Don’t be confused by
Chandler’s 2-4 record in the UFC. He has fought the cream of the crop in the lightweight
division. Chandler bulked up in anticipation of fighting Connor McGregor at 170 lbs, but
he has held onto his strength despite being back down in 155 lb lightweight division.
Pimblett is undefeated in his 6 UFC fights with 3 submissions, one knockout, and a pair
of unanimous decisions with his Jui Jitsu style. If Chandler can take the fight to the
cage, especially in the later rounds, he should be able to knock Pimblett out.
My pick: Chandler (+136). If he wins, it will be via KO, but there isn’t
much value on that at (+150). This thing could be over quickly, but I
am staying away from the over/under.
Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes :Despite losing
two straight via knockout, “Volk” is still the greatest featherweight of all time. Of those
two losses, one was a weight class up and on short notice, and the other was to rising
star, Ilia Topuria. Volk has 5 title defenses, two of them against all time greats (Max
Holloway and Jose Aldo). Volk is a relentless volume striker who will try to get in close
to Lopes andc onnect before Lopes can either get him to the ground or connect with a
big hook. It will be a total game of cat and mouse. Lopes will look for one of his big
power shots, either upper cut or hook. If Lopes get a chance to take Volk to the ground,
he will try to maintain top position or get a submission. Lopes better be careful,
because if he fails to submit Volk, he opens himself up to one of the most dangerous
weapons In the sport, Volk’s ground and pound.
My Pick: Volk (-162), if you want an interesting hedge on a late parlay
Lopes by KO/TKO/DQ or submission is +200
Parlay: Chandler by KO and Yair Rodriguez ML – +500
Longshot Parlays – Chander by KO and Rodiguez by KO – +1400
Dan Ige (+160) and Krylov via KO – +875